Figure 1. The Banana Dose Rate Profile
In the last post, I bemoaned the fact that the SNT mortality associated with eating a banana was so small that my 64 bit floating point processor gave up and called it zero. Fortunately, there are smarter people in the choir than your preacher. Chris Uhlik points out that arbitrary precision math packages are readily available. With Chris's help, the Gordian Knot Group has reimplemented its SNT package with the capability of correctly handling banana dose rate profiles, and even smaller exposures.
The bottom line in Figure 1 shows the result. The SNT risk is 0.00000000000000000145. That's four billion times smaller than the LNT mortality. In the last piece, I pointed out that according to LNT, if every human ate a banana a week, bananas would kill 1600 people a year. In the same scenario, SNT kills one person every 2.5 million years.
Now, class, let's get back to basics.
Repeat after me:
It's not dose. It's dose rate profile.
Good.
Repeat after me:
LNT does not say eating a banana is safe or unsafe.
LNT says eating a banana has a 4 in a billion chance of killing you.
Repeat after me:
SNT does not say eating a banana is safe or unsafe.
SNT says eating a banana has a 1 in a billion-billion chance of killing you.
Whether those risks are safe or unsafe is up to you.
Class dismissed.
I think you can make it even more arresting than "if every human ate a banana a week, bananas would kill 1600 people a year. In the same scenario, SNT kills one person every 2.5 million years."
Something like the following:
LNT estimates that 94 Americans currently die of radiation poisoning from eating bananas every year - more than die from salmonella poisoning.
SNT estimates that 0.0000000235 Americans currently die of radiation poisoning from eating bananas every year - or to put it another way, if everything stayed the same, one American would die of radiation poisoning from eating bananas every 43 million years.
If LNT is roughly correct, radiation poisoning from eating bananas is a serious public health concern, and we should expect the government to be passing making new laws and regulations, and spending money, to deal with it - in much the same way as it makes new laws and regulations, and spends money, trying to further reduce the risk of salmonella poisoning. If SNT is roughly correct, the risk of getting radiation poisoning from eating bananas isn't something anyone should worry about.
Assumptions: population of the US 360 million, number of bananas eaten per person every year 65 (from statista). US deaths from the National Vital Statistics Report 2022.
You would definitely have to re-check my calculations!
Welcome to today’s show of ASK THE EXPERTS! With your host, Resident Killjoy! Tonight, we have worried mother in the studio, Jane.
Miss Jane, what troubles your today?
Jane: I heard bananas are radioactive. How can that be safe for my children to eat?!
Killjoy: that sounds horrifying! Fortunately we have 3 experts in the studio with us. Three doctors, no less! Gentlemen, what can you say on the matter?
Dr. Leonard Notilde: it isn’t safe. The radiation in bananas kill hundreds if not thousands of people every year. That’s what internationally and legally accepted regulatory models say. Trust us - we’re the government.
Dr. Sigmund Notilde: my uncle from the regulatory agency is right. It isn’t safe. However the risk may be much lower than he claims, based on fringe research supported by a few pompous intellectuals.
Dr. Herman Ormesis: you got nothing to worry about Jane! Bananas are safe to eat. In fact, the vitamins, minerals and fibers are very healthy. Depriving your children from healthy foods such as fruits and vegetables is very bad for their health.