The "Cost" of LNT
A colleague of mine has been funded to determine the “cost” of LNT. It's a hopeless task. This is such a poorly framed question that a wide range of answers is defensible.
At one extreme, we can regard LNT as just a symptom of the Two Lies. If we could somehow get rid of LNT tomorrow and nothing else changes, then a release would still be intolerable, both psychologically and financially. The American tort system would see to the latter. And as long as a release is intolerable in either sense, nothing much would change. From this point of view, the cost of LNT is zero.
At the other extreme, we know that, thanks to nuclear's insane energy density and correspondingly tiny resource consumption, the should-cost of nuclear is 3 cents per kWh or less. This is based on an overnight CAPEX of $2000/kW, and a build time of 4 years. We know this because that's what nuclear power did-cost in the mid-late 1960's in today's money. I know we can beat $2000/kW by a considerable margin since I received a quote from the Koreans which was in the neighborhood of $1000/kW, a number that the five plants in Table 2 beat. However, the current did-cost of a nuclear plant in the West is about $15,000/kW, with build times in excess of 8 years which leads to a naive LCOE of about 15 cents/kWh, Table 1.
So if my colleague assumes:
a) that LNT is replaced by a radiation harm model that recognizes our remarkable ability to repair radiation damage to our DNA, and
b) that leads to the recognition that a release is not intolerable medically, and
c) that leads to the replacement of the American tort system with a compensation plan that is based only on the dose rate profile that each individual experiences and such a harm model, and
d) that leads to nuclear power becoming commercially insurable, and
e) that leads to a regulatory system that depends on the underwriters to balance cost and harm, and
f) that leads to cut throat competition among the nuclear vendors,
then the cost of LNT is more than 10 cents/kWh. That's the difference between a healthy, wealthy humanity on a cool planet, and a very uncertain future.
Jack - I hope your friend realizes that LNT costs aren’t limited to nuclear power plant construction.
The LNT/ALARA regulatory construct is a major cost driver in DOE Environmental Management (EM) clean up projects like the $3 B/yr multi decade effort at Hanford.
LNT/ALARA influenced the 15 mrem/yr for 10,000 yrs standard that drove the Yucca Mountain research project. That effort cost >$10 B just to get the “science” for the facility license application.
As I see it, the model specifics are less important that the fact that it has been used to hyperinflate radiation fears while supersizing the cost of dealing with radiation and radioactive materials.
I am confused, there is no way on earth that it costs 795 dollars a kilowatt.