The Second Miracle

Is our ability to repair radiation damage dumb luck or providential?

Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.[Thomas Malthus, 1798]

Figure 1. Coal and oil cost, last 50 years.

In 1798, Thomas Malthus used a simple calculation to predict the impoverishment of humanity. There was nothing wrong with his math, but so far that impoverishment has not occurred. Instead humanity has flourished as never before, despite an 8-fold increase in population.

What happened was series of miracles.

The discovery that wood and coal could be converted to mechanical work, and spectacular improvements in the ability to do so.

The discovery of petroleum, and the invention of the internal combustion engine.

The harnessing of electrons to create an entirely new form of useful energy, a form that could be used to light and inform the planet.

The ability to synthesize fertilizer.

Massive improvements in materials, leading to gas turbines, among other wonders.

The development of vastly improved grains.

Every time it looked like Malthus was finally going to have his day, some new wonder appeared.

But the foundation for just about all these miracles is fossil fuel. In the 1970's, the fact that fossil fuel resources are limited began to become apparent. The real cost of fossil fuel began to rise, Figure 1. Fracking has delayed and ameliorated that rise. But despite this revolutionary development, the real cost of fossil fuel has more than doubled in the last 50 years. Barring yet another miracle, it will more than double again in the next 50 years, impoverishing humanity.

On top of that, the use of fossil fuel has resulted in a rapid rise in atmospheric CO2. Figure 2, which could cause massively disruptive changes in the climate. Fossil fuel based civilization was entering its last stage.

Figure 2. Atmospheric CO2 last 800,000 years.

Mankind desperately needed yet another miracle. In the 1940's that miracle occurred, with the harnessing of the energy of the nuclear bond. This gave humanity access to a fuel whose energy density is 500,000 times that of fossil. In its initial Model T form, it was already as cheap as fossil fuel at generating electricity when fossil fuel was as cheap as it ever was. And the potential exists for order of magnitude improvements. Moreover, this miraculous source produced almost no CO2 or other pollutants,

But this promethean development came with a new hazard: radiation. Radiation is a natural phenomenon which is in part responsible for the development and maintenance of life. But the wide spread deployment of nuclear energy meant that from time to time portions of humanity would be exposed to radiation levels many times higher than normal, levels which would damage their all important DNA, leading to cancer.

At first, humanity recoiled from this danger, and implemented a regulatory system that effectively proscribed nuclear power. But then they realized that Nature had provided not just one miracle, but two.

The second miracle was bestowing us with a DNA repair system that could handle radiation doses far larger than normal. As long as a nuclear power plant has an adequate buffer zone, few if any members of the public would be exposed to dose rate profiles that these systems could not handle even in a very large release. Humanity realized its mistake, and dismantled the prohibitive regulation. It forced providers of nuclear power to live in a brutally competitive environment. The cost of electricity was driven down to new lows. Thomas Malthus was denied again, and for a very long time.

Why did Nature provide us with a DNA repair system for radiation doses that are far higher that a human would normally ever experience? Some say it was because it had too. Our oxygen based metabolism damages DNA at 25,000 times the rate of normal background radiation. Nature had to come up with a system for handling this carnage. Such a system has no problem with far higher than normal dose rate profiles. In other words, it was just dumb luck.

Maybe. I prefer to think it might be part of a plan. One thing is for sure. If humanity had not recognized its mistake and freed nuclear power from asphyxiating regulation, Thomas Malthus would finally have had his day. Civilization would have crumbled.