Nimby or Yimby?

Figure 1. My new neighborhood nuclear plant?

I have been spouting off on nuclear on substack since late last year. Maybe it's time to put up or shut up. I live in Skamania County in the Columbia River Gorge about an hour upriver from Portland. It's a big county in area, but the total population is only about 12,000. It is a logging area which has fallen on hard times due to federal timber regulation.

In the middle of the county there's an old saw mill on a peninsula jutting out into the river. It recently shut down. My house looks down on the mill. Suppose someone proposes putting a 1 gigawatt nuclear power plant on the saw mill property; what would be my response?

First thing I'd do is look at the probabilities of a harmful radiation release. Since this is about my family and me, I can use my probabilities, subjective if necessary. So far we have had one TMI or larger release about every 4000 reactor-years. I'm not counting on any improvement. I'd look at 100 years. I think there's about a 2.5% chance of a large release in that period. I'm comfortable assuming at least 90% of those releases would be TMI-like with no detectable harm off site. So my upper bound on the probability of a harmful release in 100 years is 0.0025, 2.5 chances in 1000. Not bad, but definitely not negligible. I need protection and compensation for my family and community. We need to come out ahead.

Since I'm a believer in Sigmoid No Threshold (SNT), any harm falls off with the 4th power of distance, at least close to the plant. I want at least a 2 km buffer zone between the plant and the nearest residence. Most of the harm will be concentrated in that area. But my house is only a bit more than 1 km from the site, and some of my neighbors are only 0.6 km. The saving grace is the wind in the Gorge is almost always either up or down the river. And there are no permanent residences within 3 or 4 km up and down the river from the site. So I might cheat on the buffer zone, if I get everything else on my list.

I want the plant to agree to buy out any property owner within 1 km of the plant at assessed value plus 20%. This would be a limited time offer.

I must have a radiation harm compensation scheme. In the event of a release:

1) Each person's dose rate profile will be estimated, from a grid of sensors distributed throughout the area.

2) Each person's lost life expectancy will be computed per SNT.

3) Each person will be paid $350 real for each day of lost life expectancy (LLE). Based on a Chernobyl-like release, the worst case LLE will be about 90 days, which would result in a payment of $31,500.¹

To make sure this gets paid, I need insurance covering $100,000 per person for the 12,000 person county or about $1.2 billion.

I want the plant to fit in with its scenic surroundings. No ugly cooling towers. I want once through cooling. I want compact, enclosed, gas insulated switchgear. I want underground lines to the existing transmission lines. I want a marina at the west end of the site. I want the plant to be nicely landscaped and melded in with the marina and the existing park on the east side. I want public access to all the riverfront. I want the plant to be part of the community, not a fenced off, off-limits prison.

I want a local training program: competitive internships, apprenticeships, and scholarships.

I want the county to own 1% of the plant. I want the county to have shareholder rights, and I want the county to want the plant to make money. I want that 1% to come with a seat on the board, with full access to all management information. The county would elect its representative on the board.

I want $30 million real in annual taxes (about 0.37 cents/kWh). For a $3 billion dollar plant, this would be $10/1000, which is what I'm paying in property taxes. Thirty million is roughly equal to the county's current budget including public schooling.

Finally, my electricity bill must not go up. The plant must agree to sell power to my local coop at no more than the coop has to pay for existing sources of electricity.

If nuclear is cheap as it could and should be, we can make a deal. If nuclear is as expensive as it currently is in the USA, I'm a steadfast nimby.

1. Devanney, J., Why Nuclear Power has been a Flop, Table 6.9, downloadable from gordianknotbook.com