The misuse of PRA is part of what some of us call "scientism". (Other people use that term to mean ridiculous things like "science is bad".) Hayek had a lot to say about the misuse of apparently rigorous methods outside of their appropriate context. I think we also see a lot of scientism in the climate studies area.
Your concluding paragraph is on point. Even methods that work brilliantly in some contexts are deeply inappropriate and misleading in others. Experts are not always reliable because they may be uncritically applying highly technical means in improper ways.
LNT is another desperately poor application of a line of thinking that can work in some contexts.
Good find. If all the effort that has been expended on PRA and making the number was spent on actual design we'd have simpler, more robust plants. Why worry about whether a 15 m tsunami is a 1.e-6 or 1.0e-5 event on the Fukushima coast. Just waterproof the pumps and put an air cooled diesel and its tank up onthe bluff.
The misuse of PRA is part of what some of us call "scientism". (Other people use that term to mean ridiculous things like "science is bad".) Hayek had a lot to say about the misuse of apparently rigorous methods outside of their appropriate context. I think we also see a lot of scientism in the climate studies area.
Your concluding paragraph is on point. Even methods that work brilliantly in some contexts are deeply inappropriate and misleading in others. Experts are not always reliable because they may be uncritically applying highly technical means in improper ways.
LNT is another desperately poor application of a line of thinking that can work in some contexts.
Nancy Leveson has written a lot of insightful articles about the shortfalls of PRA. See e.g. http://sunnyday.mit.edu/papers/Making-Safety-Decisions.pdf
Good find. If all the effort that has been expended on PRA and making the number was spent on actual design we'd have simpler, more robust plants. Why worry about whether a 15 m tsunami is a 1.e-6 or 1.0e-5 event on the Fukushima coast. Just waterproof the pumps and put an air cooled diesel and its tank up onthe bluff.