This particular posting happens to be clearer on this topic than some of your prior longer postings that provided more or deeper supportive detail.
Maybe we need a term like "time integrated dosage" or its equivalent [or "maximum hourly or daily dosage"?], plus [even] more education about the DNA repair factors and the (time, distance, space?) limits on when the repair factors don't avoid dangerous exposures.
I have found your past references to the background level info to also be helpful in keeping things in perspective. Perhaps that needs to be added or referenced more frequently?
I need to memorize the alpha, beta, gamma radiation types and half lives vs. iodine vs. Cs, etc. I never pay enough attention to that aspect of what you say, and I should. As should we all. :-(
People in some areas of Ramsar, a city in northern Iran, receive an annual radiation absorbed dose from background radiation that is up to 260 mSv y(-1), substantially higher than the 20 mSv y(-1) that is permitted for radiation workers. Inhabitants of Ramsar have lived for many generations in these high background areas. Cytogenetic studies show no significant differences between people in the high background compared to people in normal background areas. "
Are we at risk of presuming the release patterns from 3 MI, Russia, and Japan represent the worst patterns we can expect going forward? Are we expecting current or newer plant designs to prevent such events or at least reduce probable radiation release amounts? I could envision a hurricane or other major weather event helping to spread radiation wider than "normal", perhaps with a net quantity release higher than previously? Conversely, a wider dispersal might dilute the impact locally?
Bad ideas follow the LNT model much better than does radiation. A little bit of bad ideas lodged in your brain can attract more of them as it filters and distorts incoming information. The accumulated damage is fatal to the truth. For most people, there seems to be no intellectual repair mechanism.
Although there is a misinformed LNT cult within the IAEA, the IAEA people who are concerned with actualities in radiation release events publish this "Manual for Actions to Protect the Public in an Emergency due to Severe Conditions at a Light Water Reactor".
It concerns DOSE RATE, not DOSE. Its CHART cautions as follows:
24 mSv/day, provisionally safe for 7 days, without ingestion
2.4 mSv/day, provisionally safe for 30 days, without ingestion
0.6 mSv/day, safe for everyone for 1 year, if food and water are safe
Don't kid yourself. The poster is heavily informed by LNT and the idea that 100 mSv cumulative is "safe". (how I hate that subjective word.) The implication is that you should evacuate after you have used up your 100 mSv's, and you are not coming back for a long, long time.
A temporary evacuation is not all that harmful. People in the Florida Keys expect to evacuate every few years, sometimes oftener, but it's only for a few days. It's the long term exiles that are deeply disruptive.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15459624.2024.2440558 LNT = Racist? This paper asserts that the Nobel Prize for Medicine/Physiology that Hermann J. Muller received in 1946 was a front to enhance the legitimacy, acceptance, and application of eugenics, a strategy to guide the direction and rate of human evolutionary change. Seven of the nine people nominating (1932–1946) Muller were proponents of eugenics with Muller being among the most visible of the scientific leaders.
Eugenics was conventional "wisdom" among the intelligentia at the time. It took many different forms. Muller's was a relatively mild form.
In any event, I'm going tag this comment as off topic sicne it has little to do with solving the Gordian Knot" and less about the validity of LNT. Further comments along this line will be deleted.
As a “sharp-eyed member”, I noticed two things that affect SNT estimates for worker LLE in March 2011. First, there were 310 micro gray peak doses in a town km away, and second there were 350 workers who got 20 mSv or more. Many of these workers would have measured doses of 1-10 mSv in particular 6-hour periods while they were wearing the scarce PADs. The other 18 hours in that repair period would not have been at zero dose but might have significantly increased the dose in that repair period. Significantly increased dose in a 24-hour repair period affects the SNT estimate for LLE. Of course someone has to estimate how big the increase. Ten percent does not matter, 100 percent does.
I am always vigilant that we do not overstate our case since that leads to opponents’ cherry picking our comments for rebuttal. Hence my remark.
I'm not a lawyer. I don't know what "our case" is, nor who the "opponents" are. We are just trying to analyze an exposure. But I agree we should not purposely under-estimate the dose rate profiles.
For the worst hit control room personnel, the total doses were derived from full body measurements, taken sometime after the release was stopped, and then extrapolated back to time of exposure. These total doses are not my numbers, but were produced by the Japanese. I concocted the dose rate profiles by assuming that that total dose was received in three 8 hour periods. In reality as you point out part of the dose was actually received during the time the men were not in the control room. So the actual dose rate profile might have been a little less spikey than I assumed. But if I somehow adjusted for that. the total dose would not change, and since SNT assumes that the repair processes act as a 24 hour integrator, the SNT numbers would not change very much.
This particular posting happens to be clearer on this topic than some of your prior longer postings that provided more or deeper supportive detail.
Maybe we need a term like "time integrated dosage" or its equivalent [or "maximum hourly or daily dosage"?], plus [even] more education about the DNA repair factors and the (time, distance, space?) limits on when the repair factors don't avoid dangerous exposures.
I have found your past references to the background level info to also be helpful in keeping things in perspective. Perhaps that needs to be added or referenced more frequently?
I need to memorize the alpha, beta, gamma radiation types and half lives vs. iodine vs. Cs, etc. I never pay enough attention to that aspect of what you say, and I should. As should we all. :-(
"Abstract
People in some areas of Ramsar, a city in northern Iran, receive an annual radiation absorbed dose from background radiation that is up to 260 mSv y(-1), substantially higher than the 20 mSv y(-1) that is permitted for radiation workers. Inhabitants of Ramsar have lived for many generations in these high background areas. Cytogenetic studies show no significant differences between people in the high background compared to people in normal background areas. "
I added my comment above about background rad before seeing yours. Glad you added yours. :-)
Are we at risk of presuming the release patterns from 3 MI, Russia, and Japan represent the worst patterns we can expect going forward? Are we expecting current or newer plant designs to prevent such events or at least reduce probable radiation release amounts? I could envision a hurricane or other major weather event helping to spread radiation wider than "normal", perhaps with a net quantity release higher than previously? Conversely, a wider dispersal might dilute the impact locally?
Bad ideas follow the LNT model much better than does radiation. A little bit of bad ideas lodged in your brain can attract more of them as it filters and distorts incoming information. The accumulated damage is fatal to the truth. For most people, there seems to be no intellectual repair mechanism.
Although there is a misinformed LNT cult within the IAEA, the IAEA people who are concerned with actualities in radiation release events publish this "Manual for Actions to Protect the Public in an Emergency due to Severe Conditions at a Light Water Reactor".
It concerns DOSE RATE, not DOSE. Its CHART cautions as follows:
24 mSv/day, provisionally safe for 7 days, without ingestion
2.4 mSv/day, provisionally safe for 30 days, without ingestion
0.6 mSv/day, safe for everyone for 1 year, if food and water are safe
See the CHART at https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/EPR-NPP_PPA_web.pdf#page=77
The containing MANUAL is at https://www.iaea.org/publications/10362/actions-to-protect-the-public-in-an-emergency-due-to-severe-conditions-at-a-light-water-reactor
This information is also explained in New Nuclear is HOT!, with the Radiation chapter posted for free at https://hargraves.s3.amazonaws.com/Radiation+chapter.pdf. Other chapters are in the archive at https://hargraves.substack.com/archive?sort=new Buy the book at https://www.amazon.com/New-Nuclear-HOT-Robert-Hargraves/dp/B0CWZTXXVV/ref=sr_1_1
Robert,
Don't kid yourself. The poster is heavily informed by LNT and the idea that 100 mSv cumulative is "safe". (how I hate that subjective word.) The implication is that you should evacuate after you have used up your 100 mSv's, and you are not coming back for a long, long time.
A temporary evacuation is not all that harmful. People in the Florida Keys expect to evacuate every few years, sometimes oftener, but it's only for a few days. It's the long term exiles that are deeply disruptive.
LNT is so profoundly stupid it would be laughed out of the room if people had the slightest intuition or honesty about radiation.
It's like claiming that a lifetime habit of sunbathing carries the same risks as sitting on the sun for 10 seconds.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15459624.2024.2440558 LNT = Racist? This paper asserts that the Nobel Prize for Medicine/Physiology that Hermann J. Muller received in 1946 was a front to enhance the legitimacy, acceptance, and application of eugenics, a strategy to guide the direction and rate of human evolutionary change. Seven of the nine people nominating (1932–1946) Muller were proponents of eugenics with Muller being among the most visible of the scientific leaders.
Brian,
Eugenics was conventional "wisdom" among the intelligentia at the time. It took many different forms. Muller's was a relatively mild form.
In any event, I'm going tag this comment as off topic sicne it has little to do with solving the Gordian Knot" and less about the validity of LNT. Further comments along this line will be deleted.
As a “sharp-eyed member”, I noticed two things that affect SNT estimates for worker LLE in March 2011. First, there were 310 micro gray peak doses in a town km away, and second there were 350 workers who got 20 mSv or more. Many of these workers would have measured doses of 1-10 mSv in particular 6-hour periods while they were wearing the scarce PADs. The other 18 hours in that repair period would not have been at zero dose but might have significantly increased the dose in that repair period. Significantly increased dose in a 24-hour repair period affects the SNT estimate for LLE. Of course someone has to estimate how big the increase. Ten percent does not matter, 100 percent does.
I am always vigilant that we do not overstate our case since that leads to opponents’ cherry picking our comments for rebuttal. Hence my remark.
Ken,
I'm not a lawyer. I don't know what "our case" is, nor who the "opponents" are. We are just trying to analyze an exposure. But I agree we should not purposely under-estimate the dose rate profiles.
For the worst hit control room personnel, the total doses were derived from full body measurements, taken sometime after the release was stopped, and then extrapolated back to time of exposure. These total doses are not my numbers, but were produced by the Japanese. I concocted the dose rate profiles by assuming that that total dose was received in three 8 hour periods. In reality as you point out part of the dose was actually received during the time the men were not in the control room. So the actual dose rate profile might have been a little less spikey than I assumed. But if I somehow adjusted for that. the total dose would not change, and since SNT assumes that the repair processes act as a 24 hour integrator, the SNT numbers would not change very much.