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Robert Craig's avatar

Outstanding as always, thank you. One minor quibble though. The Regulated Asset Base model was introduced by the previous Conservative government a couple of years after Wylfa fell through.

You are of course right that the new Labour government has adopted it without demur and it is the funding model for the second major reactor being built at Sizewell C.

The first one, Hinkley Point C, was funded by EDF and the government. Both are eyewateringly expensive at c. $14m per MW, despite Kepco apparently being around $2.5m per MW.

Rolls Royce are the preferred bidder for a fleet of SMRs, coming in at a chunky 470MW, but they're FOAK so it will be at least 10 years to first completion.

The existing fleet (c. 5GW)are due to be closed by 2030, with numerous extensions already, with one exception at Sizewell B. But the graph is pointing down not up at the moment, despite all the recent hype.

When you get in the weeds of everything the ONR has done, it all sounds superficially reasonable. It's only when your step back and look at the whole package that you can see how ridiculous the multiple layers are.

Anyway, more power to your elbow and thanks for all your insights.

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Ken Robert Chaplin's avatar

One thing LNT'ers feel comfortable with is using collective dose. The ICRP warns people against using it for risk assessment since it leads to alarmist predictions. However, the ICRP is OK to use it for risk comparison.

In the ABWR example, the dose to the most highly exposed person (usually someone who stands by the fence all year round, and in the location with highest dose) is 0.1 micro-Gy. The collective dose to people living in their homes is probably less than 1 micro-Gy from the HEPA. Compare this to the collective dose LNT considers to cause one fatal cancer, which is 20-50 Gy.

We need the government to change the mandate for the regulator. In the long term we would prefer a new dose-response model (SNT). In the short term the regulator must be forced to compare the societal cost of any requirement to the expected results of a release given its collective dose, probability, and the LNT estimate of harm (20-50 Gy required for a single fatal cancer).

I spent 4.5 hours on the NRC town-hall mtg on LNT just a few weeks ago. I can see It will be a steep climb to replace LNT with a better dose response model. Right now politicians hear that all of their constituents may get a lethal dose from something like a LLW site. That is horrible. Tell them that the most conservative model possible predicts 0.0001 of a single fatal cancer. That is obviously zero.

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