Let's announce this now and give Putin plenty of time to rearrange populations (ethnic cleansing and importing of Russians). I'm sure it's already happened in the areas Russia controls. Instead how about giving control of all pre-2014 areas to Ukraine for a year or 2 and then have those elections?
As Lindsay Graham said: "We are going to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian". Explains the problem and the solution in one statement.
This is not a Ukraine war, this is a proxy war against Russia by certain entities in the West. Ukrainians elected a Russia leaning but with a policy of neutrality, a government that was overthrown in a CIA led coup in 2014. After the Russian invasion, which the West instigated, Ukraine & Ukrainians realized their situation was untenable. So they negotiated and led on a peace treaty with Russian in April 2020. They would have kept all their land except Crimea. And would have been neutral, not joining NATO. It was NATO/UK/US that pressured Ukraine to reject that agreement which they initialed.
By the West signing an agreement with Russia, to not expand NATO, to guarantee peaceful coexistence with Russia, no proxy wars or funding terrorists as they are in the Caucuses. Then and only then will there be a lasting peace in Ukraine.
And don't take my word for it, that's what the best Russian experts in the West are saying. Prof Jeffrey Sach, Prof John Mearsheimer, Prof. Gilbert Doctorow and the late Prof. Stephen Cohen are good examples.
I've imprudently taken us into an area pretty far removed from our normal discussion about the make up of the electric grid, but the same rules apply. I personally have opinions about the personalities involved but this substack is not about personalities, so I'm not allowed to express them here. And neither is anybody else. The GKN is about solutions, not emotions. Pls reword or your comment will be removed.
Pls give us a reference for the Graham quote,and back up your claim the West instigated this war, and Russia agreed to a deal in which they only kept Crimea.
Henceforth, only comments that address the proposed solution will survive immediate expunction.
It would obviously be just were it to happen to plan. The devil is in the implementation. The only reason it worked after WWI was that the empires were defunct. I think it should be presented to Putin and Zelensky, but on the condition that the plebiscite be performed by a third party, any interference invalidating the vote. And I doubt Putin would agree to such a condition or play fair, because Russians believe he can still win if only Zelensky loses military support.
They already did this over 30years ago. Even the most Russian portions of the Ukraine voted by 80% to leave Russia and join Ukraine. Over the past several hundred years the Russians have pursued a number of genocide campaigns in Ukraine. And they remember that. Many historians believe that if Hitler had gone to the Ukrainians and asked them to join up, he could have gotten them as allies against the Russians. This would have seriously altered the outcome of WWII.
That is the exactly good point. And the fact that Ukrainians support their government and resistance in great majority. People know the history, they know what russia did in Bucha(occupied just for weeks, which means that this was the scenario for the whole Ukraine) and that referendums organized by russia cannot be trusted. People of Ukraine know that they don't want to be Belarus 2.0(+russian organized concentration camps), and they already chosen in 1991, and even though they struggled with corrupt governments (with lots of russian meddling) they continuously look to have country more like Poland rather than Russia. Aggressors cannot be rewarded, it didn't work in XX century and cannot work in XXI.
This is similar to what they did with Northern Ireland in the early 20th C, with the difference being that the original boundary was overly balanced so they changed it to give one side the clear advantage, which made any sort of referendum needless.
Every one of these oblasts voted with an absolute majority to leave the USSR in 1991. Why this should be open to re-negotiation because they were invaded in a war of genocidal conquest is not obvious. (Nor is it clear what would be proven by any vote at this point even if somehow it could be fair, after Ukrainian cities and towns have been wiped off the map, men in the make-believe separatist "republics" given priority for feeding into the meat grinder, and Russians transplanted to take advantage of this newly available bargain real estate.)
The road to lasting peace is very clear, and easily achievable should the West decide to pursue it in earnest: an absolute military defeat of the invading Russian army. As it is, the enormous financial and human cost of the war is only justifiable to Putin and the Russians because they think that in the end they will outlast our resolve and win a prize worth having. As soon as it's made clear that Western support will only intensify and Russian control will only recede, the calculus of sacrifice becomes a lot less justifiable, even for the kleptocrats and butchers running the show.
I think this digression from the purpose of GKN is a mistake.
This is exact prescription for just and lasting peace. Clearly expressed- thank you! This recipe does have also very positive global implication. It will show to any leader of any nation dreaming about war of aggression toward neighbours that such plans may turn into catastrophe (regardless of "paper stength of own military"). Even if such leader would be willing to sacrifice millions of own soldiers and citizens- no reward may come and risk of demise of own regime is very real (risk to Taiwan comes to mind). Peace, rule of law and progress is better than war.
Sigh. Pls reword or the comment will be removed. Tone is important on this substack.
Go ahead and eliminate it if you want. I was hoping you wanted cogent discussion, not pablum.
The election would be chaotic hell.
Let's announce this now and give Putin plenty of time to rearrange populations (ethnic cleansing and importing of Russians). I'm sure it's already happened in the areas Russia controls. Instead how about giving control of all pre-2014 areas to Ukraine for a year or 2 and then have those elections?
As Lindsay Graham said: "We are going to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian". Explains the problem and the solution in one statement.
This is not a Ukraine war, this is a proxy war against Russia by certain entities in the West. Ukrainians elected a Russia leaning but with a policy of neutrality, a government that was overthrown in a CIA led coup in 2014. After the Russian invasion, which the West instigated, Ukraine & Ukrainians realized their situation was untenable. So they negotiated and led on a peace treaty with Russian in April 2020. They would have kept all their land except Crimea. And would have been neutral, not joining NATO. It was NATO/UK/US that pressured Ukraine to reject that agreement which they initialed.
By the West signing an agreement with Russia, to not expand NATO, to guarantee peaceful coexistence with Russia, no proxy wars or funding terrorists as they are in the Caucuses. Then and only then will there be a lasting peace in Ukraine.
And don't take my word for it, that's what the best Russian experts in the West are saying. Prof Jeffrey Sach, Prof John Mearsheimer, Prof. Gilbert Doctorow and the late Prof. Stephen Cohen are good examples.
Smith,
I've imprudently taken us into an area pretty far removed from our normal discussion about the make up of the electric grid, but the same rules apply. I personally have opinions about the personalities involved but this substack is not about personalities, so I'm not allowed to express them here. And neither is anybody else. The GKN is about solutions, not emotions. Pls reword or your comment will be removed.
I'm really regretting moving out of my lane.
Pls give us a reference for the Graham quote,and back up your claim the West instigated this war, and Russia agreed to a deal in which they only kept Crimea.
Henceforth, only comments that address the proposed solution will survive immediate expunction.
It would obviously be just were it to happen to plan. The devil is in the implementation. The only reason it worked after WWI was that the empires were defunct. I think it should be presented to Putin and Zelensky, but on the condition that the plebiscite be performed by a third party, any interference invalidating the vote. And I doubt Putin would agree to such a condition or play fair, because Russians believe he can still win if only Zelensky loses military support.
They already did this over 30years ago. Even the most Russian portions of the Ukraine voted by 80% to leave Russia and join Ukraine. Over the past several hundred years the Russians have pursued a number of genocide campaigns in Ukraine. And they remember that. Many historians believe that if Hitler had gone to the Ukrainians and asked them to join up, he could have gotten them as allies against the Russians. This would have seriously altered the outcome of WWII.
That is the exactly good point. And the fact that Ukrainians support their government and resistance in great majority. People know the history, they know what russia did in Bucha(occupied just for weeks, which means that this was the scenario for the whole Ukraine) and that referendums organized by russia cannot be trusted. People of Ukraine know that they don't want to be Belarus 2.0(+russian organized concentration camps), and they already chosen in 1991, and even though they struggled with corrupt governments (with lots of russian meddling) they continuously look to have country more like Poland rather than Russia. Aggressors cannot be rewarded, it didn't work in XX century and cannot work in XXI.
This is similar to what they did with Northern Ireland in the early 20th C, with the difference being that the original boundary was overly balanced so they changed it to give one side the clear advantage, which made any sort of referendum needless.
This is beyond ridiculous. (who would vote, the population today is completely different)
I guess this is what happens when smart people move into areas outside of their competence.
Your content on nuclear is superb and eye opening, my humble advice is stick to it.
Every one of these oblasts voted with an absolute majority to leave the USSR in 1991. Why this should be open to re-negotiation because they were invaded in a war of genocidal conquest is not obvious. (Nor is it clear what would be proven by any vote at this point even if somehow it could be fair, after Ukrainian cities and towns have been wiped off the map, men in the make-believe separatist "republics" given priority for feeding into the meat grinder, and Russians transplanted to take advantage of this newly available bargain real estate.)
The road to lasting peace is very clear, and easily achievable should the West decide to pursue it in earnest: an absolute military defeat of the invading Russian army. As it is, the enormous financial and human cost of the war is only justifiable to Putin and the Russians because they think that in the end they will outlast our resolve and win a prize worth having. As soon as it's made clear that Western support will only intensify and Russian control will only recede, the calculus of sacrifice becomes a lot less justifiable, even for the kleptocrats and butchers running the show.
I think this digression from the purpose of GKN is a mistake.
Justin,
The proposal was a tactic for getting the Ukrainians the best deal possible given where we are and what the US/EU are actually willing to do.
Agree with your last.
This is exact prescription for just and lasting peace. Clearly expressed- thank you! This recipe does have also very positive global implication. It will show to any leader of any nation dreaming about war of aggression toward neighbours that such plans may turn into catastrophe (regardless of "paper stength of own military"). Even if such leader would be willing to sacrifice millions of own soldiers and citizens- no reward may come and risk of demise of own regime is very real (risk to Taiwan comes to mind). Peace, rule of law and progress is better than war.