If only humans were able to recognize valid analogies, distinguish between a little and a lot, or achieve even the most rudimentary self-analysis. Then there might be hope for us.
It's the system, not individual humans. The OSD employees are responding rationally to the incentives that they have been given. We must come up with a system which forces individuals to balance conflicting goals. One such system is a properly functioning market.
The trick is what to do when there is no (at present with given technology) way of creating a market.
There was a time when it was not possible to charge for street parking. Technology advanced and the parking meter enabled having a single price per time period during specific hours of specific days. Today we could have technology that basically auctioned off spots in real time but we do not use it (and, to be fair, I'm not positive that the benefits are great enough for the costs).
We are in te same position with the damage being caused by the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. We have a way of dealing with it at low cost -- taxing net emission -- but instead have chosen a plethora of mandates and subsidies of alternatives.
Thank you for a very interesting piece. Your statements near the end are one reason, writ large in many other government areas of operations, that our national debt is so frigging high.
If shipbuilding was run by government (directly or through heavy regulation as you lay out), the Spec handbooks would consist of 190,000 pages and ships would take 20 years to build and cost a trillion dollars.
The info you provided on how building happens is fascinating. It's impressive. It reminds me of reading the details of how semiconductor factories work. They have to go to much greater extremes.
Whenever I read about how other industries are working I am left in awe of how much nuclear is still in its infancy with regards to all the obvious efficiency gains that we still have to get. Really shamefull for a 60 year old industry, but no wonder with all the incentives making all the innovation go into coming up with more integrit paperwork instead of delivering a competetive product.
I feel with the tanker an oil spill is a more accurate analogy since it is the effect on the public not the operator that is the main concern and the proposed system of underwriter insurance is reasonably close to how maritime insurance aligns incentives for their industry
That makes you 5 years older than me - thanks anyway.
I did enjoy your creative "out of the box" contribution there and the work you are doing against assumptions of linear accumulation of nuclear radiation effects - so sensible..
John Carter
PS I'm sure HALEU will be available to all BRIX members when needed?
Thank you for this well-written, informative piece. The behavior of the OSD is almost perfectly analogous to US regulators in other areas such as pharmaceuticals and medical device manufacture (regulated by the FDA). Although I reject Mr H’s assertion that these requirements have anything to do with the national debt (but that’s a quibble), it certainly has something to do with the cost of healthcare. What surprised me most is that there are in fact grades of incompetence within and amongst these bureaucracies. Clinical labs are, in contrast to pharmaceutical and medical device manufacturing, under the purview of the social security administration (medicare). Once one (like me) who complains regularly about the opacity of some FDA regulations (don’t even get me started on “guidance documents”) is exposed to CLIA regulations, one learns to appreciate the fact that the FDA actually has some people on staff who have worked in the industry.
Hi Jack…..great post but I’m under the impression that risk averse regulation is the major obsticle causing decades of delay over here. In the meantime the green agenda rules,
low cost electricity an illusion. As you once posted erecting steel, pouring concrete, installing turbines, standard stuff all been done before, just the reactor build special. Why didn’t we here in the UK continue the transition from coal to big nuclear back in the 1960/70’s when we were building a nuclear fleet plus several large coal fired plants ?
As a former shipyard superintendent with experience in South Korean shipyards, I thank you for making your readers aware of that aspect of the shipping business.
Good article. It’s true of any trade, transaction,exchange or contract. With buyer and seller work out a deal without interference. The idea of granting control to a third party that pays no price for delay, or has no link to cost control is destructive for said exchange or contract. All stipulations need to be clearly defined prior to signing a contract or they in fact, become a breach of contract.
There are a multitude of ways to ensure safety during construction and operation of any enterprise. It’s regrettable our west society has chosen the most costly, irresponsible and in the end, ineffective. Accidents still happen but now the cost never is attributed to bureaucratic meddling.
And unnecessary if, assuming that there was some good reason to think that management was not taking builder deaths' seriously enough, the OSD just charged the owners an appropriate fine for every death or near miss.
Thanks for your article- it rings with a lot of truth here in the shipyard in my neck of the woods. Say what you will about onerous requirements in Navy Standard Items and the Spec, but the environmental compliance aspect far and away makes it almost impossible to operate. That said, as the manager of the environmental compliance at a CA shipyard, I can personally attest that we find a way and it’s something we’re proud of.
What does environmental compliance have to do with building a ship?. I'm going to make a wild guess your yard is NASSCO in San Diego.. I happened to be in that yard when they brought the Exxon Valdez in after she hit Bligh Reef. I was shocked. All the bottom longitudinal stiffeners had parted from the bottom plate. The stiffener to plate welds look like tack welds. I don't know how much these ridiculously lousy welds contributed to the spill but I'm happy to know they passed environmental compliance, even tho the Valdez cost 4 times what it would in Korea where they competition has forced the yards to do decent welding.
Hi Jack, nowadays environmental compliance is as integral to shipbuilding as welding- and i say that with a straight face. The regulatory landscape is so restrictive that in some other yards, every gallon of paint, every pound of welding wire/rod, each hour that a diesel compressor runs, must be accounted for daily. I don’t say this lightly when I say that some facilities are facing existential risks for up to a quarter of a pound of hexavalent chromium emissions over an entire year.
I am young enough to only have read about the Exxon incident, but I find it interesting that you are referencing a ship that was built almost 35 years ago now- the industry and best practices, especially in QC/QA have changed. ISO certification, new materials, training and continuous improvement are the new norm to operate. The ratchet only moves one way.
Is there a balance point between regs/standards? Absolutely. Are they unbalanced in the US? You bet. But at this point, we either sell expensive ships or none at all.
We don’t have a dedicated shipbuilding workforce, we’re not subsidized by the government, any capital projects get gridlocked by nearly a dozen three- letter agencies, and when your competition’s idea of a water treatment plant is a pipe straight into the bay, of course we’re going to be expensive. To put it more cynically, the quality of construction necessarily has to improve to satisfy the customer- otherwise we’d be out of work. But there’s a price associated with that.
You are subsidized by the Jones Act, one of the most counter-productive subsides of all time, and the reason why New England can't get American LNG.
When I left tankers 20 years ago, American flag ships had a terrible rep. Fatigue cracking was endemic in the West Coast-Alaskan fleet. For the factor of 4 increase in cost, the shipowner and the public got a lousy ship.
And don't get me started on naval vessels. Pls see
If only humans were able to recognize valid analogies, distinguish between a little and a lot, or achieve even the most rudimentary self-analysis. Then there might be hope for us.
Jess,
It's the system, not individual humans. The OSD employees are responding rationally to the incentives that they have been given. We must come up with a system which forces individuals to balance conflicting goals. One such system is a properly functioning market.
The trick is what to do when there is no (at present with given technology) way of creating a market.
There was a time when it was not possible to charge for street parking. Technology advanced and the parking meter enabled having a single price per time period during specific hours of specific days. Today we could have technology that basically auctioned off spots in real time but we do not use it (and, to be fair, I'm not positive that the benefits are great enough for the costs).
We are in te same position with the damage being caused by the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. We have a way of dealing with it at low cost -- taxing net emission -- but instead have chosen a plethora of mandates and subsidies of alternatives.
Thank you for a very interesting piece. Your statements near the end are one reason, writ large in many other government areas of operations, that our national debt is so frigging high.
If shipbuilding was run by government (directly or through heavy regulation as you lay out), the Spec handbooks would consist of 190,000 pages and ships would take 20 years to build and cost a trillion dollars.
The info you provided on how building happens is fascinating. It's impressive. It reminds me of reading the details of how semiconductor factories work. They have to go to much greater extremes.
Whenever I read about how other industries are working I am left in awe of how much nuclear is still in its infancy with regards to all the obvious efficiency gains that we still have to get. Really shamefull for a 60 year old industry, but no wonder with all the incentives making all the innovation go into coming up with more integrit paperwork instead of delivering a competetive product.
I feel with the tanker an oil spill is a more accurate analogy since it is the effect on the public not the operator that is the main concern and the proposed system of underwriter insurance is reasonably close to how maritime insurance aligns incentives for their industry
Great informative post - as usual
When will Indonesia's first of 8 500MWe ThorCon TMSR be finished?
We are waiting patiently...
John Carter
I retired from ThorCon five years ago at the age of 80.
I can't speak for the project,
and it would be inappropriate for me to do so on this substack.
That makes you 5 years older than me - thanks anyway.
I did enjoy your creative "out of the box" contribution there and the work you are doing against assumptions of linear accumulation of nuclear radiation effects - so sensible..
John Carter
PS I'm sure HALEU will be available to all BRIX members when needed?
When will Indonesia's first of 8 500MWe ThorCon TMSR be finished?
We are waiting patiently...
John Carter
Thank you for this well-written, informative piece. The behavior of the OSD is almost perfectly analogous to US regulators in other areas such as pharmaceuticals and medical device manufacture (regulated by the FDA). Although I reject Mr H’s assertion that these requirements have anything to do with the national debt (but that’s a quibble), it certainly has something to do with the cost of healthcare. What surprised me most is that there are in fact grades of incompetence within and amongst these bureaucracies. Clinical labs are, in contrast to pharmaceutical and medical device manufacturing, under the purview of the social security administration (medicare). Once one (like me) who complains regularly about the opacity of some FDA regulations (don’t even get me started on “guidance documents”) is exposed to CLIA regulations, one learns to appreciate the fact that the FDA actually has some people on staff who have worked in the industry.
Hi Jack…..great post but I’m under the impression that risk averse regulation is the major obsticle causing decades of delay over here. In the meantime the green agenda rules,
low cost electricity an illusion. As you once posted erecting steel, pouring concrete, installing turbines, standard stuff all been done before, just the reactor build special. Why didn’t we here in the UK continue the transition from coal to big nuclear back in the 1960/70’s when we were building a nuclear fleet plus several large coal fired plants ?
Barry Wright, UK.
"great post but I’m under the impression that risk averse regulation is the major obsticle"
That is exactly the point of this article.
As a former shipyard superintendent with experience in South Korean shipyards, I thank you for making your readers aware of that aspect of the shipping business.
Good article. It’s true of any trade, transaction,exchange or contract. With buyer and seller work out a deal without interference. The idea of granting control to a third party that pays no price for delay, or has no link to cost control is destructive for said exchange or contract. All stipulations need to be clearly defined prior to signing a contract or they in fact, become a breach of contract.
There are a multitude of ways to ensure safety during construction and operation of any enterprise. It’s regrettable our west society has chosen the most costly, irresponsible and in the end, ineffective. Accidents still happen but now the cost never is attributed to bureaucratic meddling.
What an incredibly painful and poignant last paragraph.
James,
Thanks. An AI guru like yourself will have no problem with the caesar cipher in that paragraph.
And unnecessary if, assuming that there was some good reason to think that management was not taking builder deaths' seriously enough, the OSD just charged the owners an appropriate fine for every death or near miss.
Thanks for your article- it rings with a lot of truth here in the shipyard in my neck of the woods. Say what you will about onerous requirements in Navy Standard Items and the Spec, but the environmental compliance aspect far and away makes it almost impossible to operate. That said, as the manager of the environmental compliance at a CA shipyard, I can personally attest that we find a way and it’s something we’re proud of.
Nathan,
What does environmental compliance have to do with building a ship?. I'm going to make a wild guess your yard is NASSCO in San Diego.. I happened to be in that yard when they brought the Exxon Valdez in after she hit Bligh Reef. I was shocked. All the bottom longitudinal stiffeners had parted from the bottom plate. The stiffener to plate welds look like tack welds. I don't know how much these ridiculously lousy welds contributed to the spill but I'm happy to know they passed environmental compliance, even tho the Valdez cost 4 times what it would in Korea where they competition has forced the yards to do decent welding.
Hi Jack, nowadays environmental compliance is as integral to shipbuilding as welding- and i say that with a straight face. The regulatory landscape is so restrictive that in some other yards, every gallon of paint, every pound of welding wire/rod, each hour that a diesel compressor runs, must be accounted for daily. I don’t say this lightly when I say that some facilities are facing existential risks for up to a quarter of a pound of hexavalent chromium emissions over an entire year.
I am young enough to only have read about the Exxon incident, but I find it interesting that you are referencing a ship that was built almost 35 years ago now- the industry and best practices, especially in QC/QA have changed. ISO certification, new materials, training and continuous improvement are the new norm to operate. The ratchet only moves one way.
Is there a balance point between regs/standards? Absolutely. Are they unbalanced in the US? You bet. But at this point, we either sell expensive ships or none at all.
We don’t have a dedicated shipbuilding workforce, we’re not subsidized by the government, any capital projects get gridlocked by nearly a dozen three- letter agencies, and when your competition’s idea of a water treatment plant is a pipe straight into the bay, of course we’re going to be expensive. To put it more cynically, the quality of construction necessarily has to improve to satisfy the customer- otherwise we’d be out of work. But there’s a price associated with that.
You are subsidized by the Jones Act, one of the most counter-productive subsides of all time, and the reason why New England can't get American LNG.
When I left tankers 20 years ago, American flag ships had a terrible rep. Fatigue cracking was endemic in the West Coast-Alaskan fleet. For the factor of 4 increase in cost, the shipowner and the public got a lousy ship.
And don't get me started on naval vessels. Pls see
https://jackdevanney.substack/p/a-tale-of-two-ships
The problem is we Americans build nuclear plants like we build ships.
We need to build nuclear plants like the Koreans build ships.